Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

UKCEH

Welcome

Domestics

• Fire alarm
• Toilets
• Wi-fi
  • UKCEH Wi-Fi
  • UKCEH Guest: password Atm0sphere!

Website

All materials on course website:

nerc-ceh.github.io/beem

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”
• data are indirect, true processes are hard to observe

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”
• data are indirect, true processes are hard to observe
• any kind of model

Confusion is normal

• Get comfortable with confusion
• Ask questions!

Assumed knowledge

• familiarity with R

• basic maths

• exposure to significance testing, p-values etc.

• some unlearning required

A perspective shift

Heliocentric model

Geocentric model

Overview

Overview

Monday pm

• basics of conditional probablility

Overview

Tuesday am

• How the Bayesian approach is typically implemented
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms

Tuesday pm

• Linear modelling
  • practical application to simple models

Overview

Wednesday am

• Model comparison & selection
• Measurement and uncertainty

Wednesday pm

• Hierarchical modelling
  • practical application to more complex models

Overview

Thursday am

• Hierarchical modelling cont.
• Process-based modelling
  • practical application to very complex models

Thursday pm

• Process-based modelling cont.
• Summing up

Overview

Friday am

Up to you …

• small group discussions?
• recap / revisit?

Introductions